Tags: 30 year fixed mortgage rate, 30-year fixed, bad credit, bad credit mortgage, bank, Bill Cox, first time home, Goldman Sachs, home finance loan, home finance loan rates, home finance rates, home owner, homes for sale, Illinois, interest, interest only mortgage, interest rate, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, loan, lower oil prices, Mortgage, mortgage finance, mortgage interest rate, mortgage loan, mortgage rate, mortgage rates outlook, National Bureau of Economic Research, rate, rate outlook 2009, rate will go down, refinance, refinancing, united states, year mortgage rate
It had not been long since we expected that mortgage rates will go up in next few months. The prediction for mortgage rates to go up was made because investors were sidelined and inflation was likely to rise. The downward spiral in home prices and the global financial crisis scared the already shaking investors a bit more. But all is not bad news. If you are planning to buy a home during this crisis, you might strike a deal of your life if the rate for mortgage finance and refinance go down in 2009.All investment pundits are predicting that home finance rates will go down in 2009 compared to 2008. Let’s analyze the main factors or fundamentals of mortgage rates movement. Economic outlook, inflation trend and Government policy… all these factors are signaling that we have lower interest rates ahead of us.
Already the mortgage rates being offered are very very attractive. National average for 30-year Fixed Mortgage has fallen to below 5.6% in December 2008. It is way down from 6.6 percent just 7 weeks before that. following are the main factors that in my opinion will influence the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and 15-year variable rate mortgage. If you act as a wise consumer, you can get great benefits from this knowledge and use it to protect your depleting wealth and equity in your house.
30-year fixed mortgage rates will start from 5.5% and keep dropping till June 2009. from there as economic conditions in overall economy will start to improve the mortgage rates will move up again and might hit 6.5% by end of 2009.
Still at these rates, getting a home finance loan is not a bad deal. It’s still very attractive loan rate. There is no evidence available to suggest that home finance loan rates are likely to go up as the market is stalling. plenty of inventory is already out there. The economic conditions never change quickly and there will always be a window available to get the best deal on home loans. My prediction is that this window is already open and will remain open till June 2009.
I see 6 Factors that support my 30-year fixed rate mortgage outlook as i predicted above.
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Deflationary Pressure
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Global Recession
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US Government Policy
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Housing Market Mess
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Poor Credit Scores
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Wait and See Attitude
Deflationary Pressure:
With announcement from world bank, world is officially in the worst recession since World War II. Inflation is a thing of past. we are facing worst of deflation in our country. Core consumer price index has fallen sharply (mainly due to lower oil prices). Yields on Govt. securities like bonds and treasury notes in hitting bottom. It is interesting to note that 30-year Fixed Mortgage rates mostly follow 10-year Treasury Notes. Deflation will rule most of 2009. this will help keep the loan rates down.Recession
Recession:
The National Bureau of Economic Research recently announced that the United States did indeed enter a recession in December 2008. While predictions as to the duration and depth of the recession vary, economists at Goldman Sachs recently revised their original forecast in the face of deteriorating economic news. “This deepens and extends the expected recession, bringing the drop in GDP close to the decline seen in 1982 (2.3% in our forecast versus 2.7% then),” the economists said in the report.
Government Policy:
The massive bailout initiatives that governments around the world are now undertaking will undoubtedly lead to renewed inflationary pressures but as we can read the fine print of these spending plans, we are unlikely to see any material effect before first quarter of 2010.
The Mess in Housing Market:
The drop in home prices, mixed with rising mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, has forced investors to demand higher rate of interest on their investments especially in securities that are backed by home loans. Resulting in increasing spreads — you can clearly see that difference between 10-year Treasury Bond yields and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has increased significantly. Home prices are expected to continue the downward spiral, at least till June, 2009 — and mortgage delinquencies increasing at alarming pace — this “risk premium” would remain High. “We’re not going to get back to the same tight relationship between the 10-year [Treasury] bond and fixed mortgage rates any time soon,” says Bill Cox , a mortgage lender from Illinois.
Poor Credit Scores :
Even if the mortgage rates will remain low in most part of 2009, a large number of people will not be able to benefit from these.(May be this is another reason for rates to be down). People’s credit scores are hitting rock bottom due to increased borrowing and Job situations. 1 in every 15 American is jobless.People who already have adjustable rate mortgage and want to take advantage of lower interest rates are unable to do so. The decrease in housing prices have eroded the home owner’s equity and most of them have negative equity. They are unable to refinance home mortgage loans due to negative equity, meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. As a result, they will not be eligible for refinancing. There not a great number of potential home buyers in the market these days.
Wait and See Attitude:
Even though, the loan rates are attractive today, people are in no hurry. They understand the economy better than year ago and know that 30-year mortgage rates are not likely to go away if they don’t hurry. they know they have enough time. Blogs like ours are helping in spreading the message. People are convinced that home loan rates are low and will remain low for considerable period of time and they can get their sheet together before taking another debt obligation.
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I have tried to include all credit cards issued in US. If you think if I have missed any, please leave a comment. More than 1200 cards have been included.
1. AAA Credit Card
2. AAA Rewards Visa Credit Card (Northern California, Nevada, Utah)
3. AAdvantage American Express from Citi
4. AAdvantage Bronze MasterCard from Citi
5. AAdvantage Bronze MasterCard from Citi for College Students
6. AAdvantage Gold World MasterCard from Citi
7. AAdvantage CitiBusiness Card
8. AARP Platinum Visa
9. AARP Rewards Platinum Visa Credit Card
10. AARP Travel Plus Visa Signature Card
11. Abercrombie & Fitch Credit Card
12. Academy of General Dentistry Platinum Visa Card
13. AccountNow Prepaid MasterCard
14. Adirondack Trust Company MasterCard or Visa
15. Advanta Platinum BusinessCard with Rewards
16. Advanta Life-Of-Balance Platinum Card
17. Advanta Platinum BusinessCard
18. Aer Lingus Rewards MasterCard
19. Agriculture Federal Credit Union Visa
20. AICPA Platinum Visa Card
21. Air BP Visa
22. Air Canada MasterCard
23. Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association MasterCard
24. Air Force Association Platinum MasterCard
25. Air Force Sergeants Association MasterCard
26. AirTran Airways A+ Business Card
27. AirTran Airways A+ Visa Signature Credit Card from Juniper Bank
28. Alabama Central Credit Union MasterCard or Visa
29. Alaska Airlines Visa
30. Alaska Airlines Visa Business Card
31. Albina Community Bank Loop Card
32. All-Access Visa Prepaid Card
33. Allow Card Prepaid MasterCard
34. Alternatives Federal Credit Union Visa
35. Amalgamated Bank MasterCard
36. Amalgamated Bank Union MasterCard
37. Amalgamated Bank Secured Gold MasterCard
38. Amazon.com Business Credit Card
39. Amazon.com Platinum Visa Credit Card
40. American Association of Neurological Surgeons Credit Card
41. American Bar Association Visa
42. American Boating Association Credit Card
43. American Canine Association Platinum MasterCard
44. American Chemical Society Credit Card
45. American DreamCard MasterCard
46. American Eagle Outfitters Credit Card
47. American Express Business ExtrAA Corporate Card
48. American Express Business Gold Rewards Card
49. American Express Business Green Rewards Card
50. American Express Business Membership Rewards Card
51. American Express Business Platinum Card
52. The American Express Card
53. American Express Card for Students
54. American Express Cash Rebate Card
55. American Express Corporate Card
56. American Express Executive Business Card
57. The American Express Gold Card
58. American Express Golf Card
59. American Express IN:CHICAGO Card
60. American Express IN:LA Card
61. American Express IN:NYC Card
62. American Express Optima Card
63. American Express Optima Platinum Card
64. American Express Platinum Business Credit Card
65. American Express Platinum Business FreedomPass Credit Card
66. American Express Platinum Card
67. American Express Platinum Cash Rebate Card
68. American Express Preferred Rewards Gold Card
69. American Express Preferred Rewards Green Card
70. American Express Rewards Plus Gold Card
71. American Express SimplyCash Business Card
72. American Institute of Architects Credit Card
73. American Kennel Club Rewards Visa
74. American Legion Auxiliary Visa
75. American Legion Visa
76. American Medical Association Business Credit Card
77. American Medical Association Platinum Visa Credit Card
78. American Medical Student Association Credit Card
79. American Paint Horse Association Credit Card
80. American Photo Visa Card
81. American Quarter Horse Association Business Credit Card
82. American Quarter Horse Association Credit Card
83. American Savings Bank Secured Visa
84. American Savings Bank Student Secured Visa
85. American Savings Bank Visa
86. American Savings Bank Visa Gold
87. American Skiing Company Edge MasterCard
88. American Society of Civil Engineers Credit Card
89. American Society of Mechanical Engineers Credit Card
90. American State Bank Credit Card (Iowa)
91. American State Bank & Trust Visa (North Dakota)
92. American State Bank Visa (Texas)
93. American Taekwondo Association Credit Card
94. American University MasterCard
95. America’s Christian Credit Union Credit Cards
96. Amtrak Guest Rewards MasterCard
97. AmTrust Bank Rewards American Express Card
98. AmTrust Bank WorldPoints Credit Card
99. ANB Financial MasterCard or Visa
100. AnimalSafe MasterCard Read the full story
