In May 2009, Interest rates were at their lowest. 4.75% was indeed a historic low.  If we look at national averages for June 2009, the interest rates are swinging around 5.75%.

Mortgage Trends for July 2009

If we look at trends, Interest rates for fixed mortgages are climbing up all over United States. This pressure on mortgage rates is mainly external.  As some news reports suggest, The major players in US Debt market , are still not satisfied with the economical and fiscal measures taken by US Govt.  This adds pressure on interest rates and liquidity situation in housing market is still very bleak.

It’s  Still A Good Time To Get Mortgage Refinance

Those borrowers who have decided to refinance, as well as those who are passing through the process of refinancing, should take the decision keeping in view the current market conditions and interest rates, the current conditions of housing market are indicating that the borrowers should not refinance at this stage. So what should they do? Should they quit and try again later?

I don’t think so that the only solution is to quit. Here are a few things that you should take into consideration before giving up on a mortgage refinance.

We might say that the rates are higher than they were, But they have not reached their peak,they’re still relatively low.

It’s All Relative

As once said by a very smart man, in the form of a mathematical formula, “It’s all relative.” Now this statement seems to be more true in the area of mortgage interest rates. Last month a full point rise like we’ve seen has been a part of conversation among the media people, they talked about this depressing stuff like a “stillborn housing recovery.”

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As we all can see that US housing crash still continues it is still not a good time to buy. Those who are thinking to buy a home are making a wrong decision they should wait till the prices falls more. I must tell you that falling house prices are the solution to your problems and not the problem itself.

House Prices are Still High

The prices are still dangerously high as compared to the incomes and rents due to this reason house prices will keep falling in most places. It is suggested by banks  that a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer’s yearly income. Whereas the landlords suggest that a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the tenant’s yearly rent.

However both those safety rules are still being violated in coastal areas. Although recently the price has been decreased but buyers are still borrowing 6 times their income and sellers are still asking for 30 times annual rent.

Renting is a cash business that shows those rates what people can really pay, and it does not reflects how much they can borrow. It has been proved by the salaries and rents that the prices will keep falling for a long time. Anyone who bought a “bargain” this time last year is already been suffering from a great loss.

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There are certain misconceptions in the minds of people related to factors that determine mortgage rates. Let us try to explore these in details to find real truth behind these myths.

Mortgage rates moves with Federal Reserve’s  Fund Rate

Many consumers are misguided about the different factors in the economy that affects mortgage rates. There is a common misconception among borrowers and also some members of the media that the Federal Funds Rate set by the Federal Reserve is related to mortgage rates, but when the Fed cuts the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates are not affected accordingly then this concept of people proves to be wrong.

The reason behind this is that mortgage rates are determined by Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and the current coupons they are trading at.MBS are traded every business day just like stocks and other bonds. As MBS’s demand increases, its price goes up and its yield goes down and thus resulting in lower mortgage rates.

In a more simple way we can say that mortgage rates are anything that increases investor demand to buy mortgages resulting in lower mortgage rates. For example when investor pulls out their money from stocks they usually try to invest in safer fixed income investments and MBS is one option they have. So when stocks decline that also increases the demand for MBS.

Another factor that could increase investor demand for mortgages is deflation.MBS and other bonds are fixed income investments so due to inflation the return on that type of investment diminishes. If there is deflation then the fixed investments remain attractive. On the other hand, if inflation is high then investments like MBS are less attractive and demand decreases which ultimately results into an increase in mortgage interest rates.

The reason that mortgage rates often increase when the Fed lowers rates is because the lower Fed rate Stimulates the economy and become a reason of higher inflation in the future which is a bad sign for mortgage bonds that is why mortgage rates usually increase when the Fed cuts their rate.

Mortgage Rates are based on the 10 year Treasury bonds

Another misconception is there in the minds of some people that mortgage rates are based on the US 10 year Treasury bond. Many times it happens that the MBS market moves within a certain spread compared to the 10year but sometimes there is a large disconnection between the MBS and 10year US treasury bonds.The problem that we are currently facing is to keep mortgage rates higher so that they could be given more traditional spreads. There are days where the yield on the 10yr will drop while the yield for MBS will increase when normally they would move in a similar path.

Mortgage rates in U.S. have fallen to another record low as the week closes. It is has declined for 10th consecutive week this time.

As Freddie Mac reported this Thursday that 30-year fixed rate mortgage yields have averaged about 5.01% for the week ending on January 8th, 2009. it is a 9 basis point decline from last weeks’ rate. It is nice to compare it with the rates this time last year. which were 5.87% .

Since The Govt. Sponsored Agency Freddie Mac started the survey(1971), this is the lowest reported level for these rates.

15-year fixed rate mortgage is even lower at 4.62%. It is has declined sharper from 4.80% levels of last week and a down hill slide of 5.43% level of this time, last year. It is said to be the lowest reported rate since June 13, 2003.

It is expected that this will impact on adjustable-rate mortgage especially the 5-year adjustable mortgages which averaged about 5.5% this week down from 5.7% last week.

Plain English: What does it mean for house owners

Well, the the house owners around US are struggling with increased cost of living and job uncertainty, these attractive rates can offer real relief in terms of monthly amount spent on home loan re-payments. Most of the homeowners will see this as an opportunity to get rid of expensive adjustable rate mortgage and get a fixed payment loan instead for the peace of mind that comes with it. As It the fixed-rate mortgages are not likely to go down any further, It is a good time to bet on them.

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